{"id":12289,"date":"2026-04-07T18:34:57","date_gmt":"2026-04-08T02:34:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/inedc.com\/24\/?p=12289"},"modified":"2026-04-07T18:34:57","modified_gmt":"2026-04-08T02:34:57","slug":"cd3-voter-registration-gap-narrower-than-expected-consultants-memo-finds-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/inedc.com\/24\/government\/cd3-voter-registration-gap-narrower-than-expected-consultants-memo-finds-2\/","title":{"rendered":"CD3 Voter Registration Gap Narrower Than Expected, Consultant\u2019s Memo Finds"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"589\" data-end=\"638\"><strong data-start=\"589\" data-end=\"638\">By Cris Alarcon, InEDC Writer | April 7, 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"640\" data-end=\"938\"><strong data-start=\"640\" data-end=\"657\">LOTUS, Calif.<\/strong> \u2014 A newly circulated memorandum from local political consultant Dan Dellinger is challenging long-held assumptions about voter registration advantages in California\u2019s 3rd Congressional District, suggesting the race may be far more competitive than conventional analysis indicates.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"940\" data-end=\"1292\">In a March 27 memo addressed to \u201cinterested persons,\u201d Dellinger argues that traditional calculations\u2014comparing only Democratic and Republican registration\u2014fail to account for the influence of minor political parties. Standard figures show Democrats holding a 7.25 percentage point advantage over Republicans in CD3, with 38.77% to 31.52%, respectively.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1294\" data-end=\"1566\">However, Dellinger\u2019s analysis reframes the data by grouping minor parties along ideological lines. By combining Democrats with Green and Peace &amp; Freedom party registrants, and Republicans with Libertarians and the American Independent Party, the gap narrows significantly.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1568\" data-end=\"1786\">According to the memo, liberal-leaning voters total 192,106 registrants, or 39.98%, while conservative-leaning voters account for 184,249 registrants, or 38.34%. That leaves a difference of just 1.64 percentage points.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1788\" data-end=\"1997\">\u201cConventional wisdom is only viewing this race through the prism of just Democrats versus Republicans,\u201d Dellinger wrote. \u201cIf we take into consideration the past history of minor parties\u2026 the equation changes.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1999\" data-end=\"2353\">The analysis draws from voter registration data across four counties within CD3\u2014El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, and Sacramento\u2014regions that collectively shape the district\u2019s political landscape. El Dorado County, in particular, shows relatively close alignment between major party registrations, reinforcing the broader conclusion of a competitive electorate.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2355\" data-end=\"2655\">Dellinger also addressed the role of No Party Preference (NPP) voters, who make up more than 20% of registered voters in the district. He noted that NPP voters tend to mirror local voting trends but are less consistent in turnout, particularly during primary elections or in highly contentious races.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2657\" data-end=\"2819\">\u201cNPP voters do not like conflict,\u201d the memo states, adding that heavy negative campaigning may suppress participation or lead to undervoting in specific contests.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2821\" data-end=\"3061\">Local political observers note that while the methodology offers a different lens, its conclusions depend heavily on assumptions about how minor party voters align ideologically\u2014an area that can vary significantly by election and candidate.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3063\" data-end=\"3281\">Still, the memo arrives as candidates and parties begin positioning for the 2026 election cycle, where turnout dynamics and voter engagement are expected to play a decisive role in closely contested districts like CD3.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3063\" data-end=\"3281\">\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\" data-start=\"3063\" data-end=\"3281\">Insider Memorandum: 3-27-26<\/h3>\n<p>Dan Dellinger Consulting<br \/>\nP.O. Box 638<br \/>\nLotus, CA 95651<br \/>\nPhone (530) 644-5663<br \/>\ndandellinger@infostations.com<\/p>\n<p>Insider Memorandum: 3-27-26<br \/>\nTO: Interested Persons<br \/>\nFR: Dan Dellinger<br \/>\nRE: California CD3 Realistic Registration Gap \u2013 Just 1.64%<br \/>\nI just ran the party registration numbers on CA CD3 and here is how I see Republican<br \/>\nchances versus how conventional wisdom perceives them. Conventional wisdom is only<br \/>\nviewing this race through the prism of just Democrats versus Republicans, as if minor<br \/>\nparties do not affect the outcomes of elections, Democrats 38.77% minus Republicans<br \/>\n31.52% yielding a D + 7.25 registration advantage making it look like a big reach for a<br \/>\nRepublican. However, if we take into consideration the past history of minor parties with<br \/>\nrespectable registration numbers in Northern California, the equation changes to Liberal<br \/>\nVoters minus Conservative Voters equals the realistic registration advantage, or<br \/>\n(Democrats + Green + Peace &amp;amp; Freedom) \u2013 (Republicans + Libertarians + American<br \/>\nIndependent Party) = Realistic Registration Advantage.<\/p>\n<p>Liberal Leaning Voters<\/p>\n<p>Democrat P&amp;amp;F Green<br \/>\nEl Dorado 11,252 195 273<br \/>\nNevada 30,204 391 724<br \/>\nPlacer 25,603 293 424<br \/>\nSacramento 119,250 1,897 1,600<br \/>\nTotal 186,309 2,776 3,021<br \/>\n38.77% 0.58% 0.63%<\/p>\n<p>Conservative Leaning Voters<\/p>\n<p>Republican Libertarian AIP<br \/>\nEl Dorado 10,066 625 2,064<br \/>\nNevada 25,552 1,301 4,450<br \/>\nPlacer 39,317 1,738 4,925<br \/>\nSacramento 76,542 3,690 14,009<br \/>\nTotal 151,447 7,354 25,448<br \/>\n31.52% 1.53% 5.30%<br \/>\nLiberal Leaning Voters Conservative Leaning Voters<br \/>\nDemocrat 186,309 Republican 151,447<br \/>\nP&amp;amp;F 2,776 Libertarian 7,354<br \/>\nGreen 3,021 AIP 25,448<br \/>\n192,106 184,249<br \/>\n39.98% 38.34%<\/p>\n<p>Thus 39.98% &#8211; 38.34% = 1.64%, a slim registration advantage in Liberal Leaning Voters<br \/>\nwithin CD3.<br \/>\nI highly recommend that we correct the outcome advantage assumption being pushed by<br \/>\nliberal pundits designed to suppress Conservative voter turnout and our ability to raise<br \/>\nfunds for Republican candidates up and down the ballot.<br \/>\nI did not include No Party Preference (NPP) voters in this discussion because they are not<br \/>\nusually grounded in any political ideology and tend break out the same way as their local<br \/>\ncommunity. NPP voters do not like conflict. If there is heavy negative advertising in a<br \/>\ncontest, NPP voters also tend to drop off of voting in that contest and leave it blank on<br \/>\ntheir ballot (the undercount) or do not vote. In addition, NPP voters do not turnout well in<br \/>\nPrimaries but will vote in General Elections if they are interested in a candidate or ballot<br \/>\nmeasure.<br \/>\nMembers of the other miscellaneous parties tend to hold viewpoints on the fringe of<br \/>\nnormal political discourse or view politics as a comedic theater.<\/p>\n<p>NPP Other Parties<br \/>\nEl Dorado 6,688 324<br \/>\nNevada 15,091 465<br \/>\nPlacer 16,622 997<br \/>\nSacramento 61,678 2,320<br \/>\nTotal 100,079 4,106<br \/>\n20.83% 8.06%<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A political consultant\u2019s memo suggests California\u2019s 3rd Congressional District is far more competitive than commonly believed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12288,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"format":"standard","override":[{"template":"7","parallax":"1","layout":"no-sidebar-narrow","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"float","share_float_style":"share-normal","show_share_counter":"1","show_view_counter":"1","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"1","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"1","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","post_calculate_word_method":"str_word_count","show_zoom_button":"0","zoom_button_out_step":"2","zoom_button_in_step":"3","show_post_tag":"1","show_popup_post":"1","show_comment_section":"1","number_popup_post":"1","show_author_box":"1","show_post_related":"1","show_inline_post_related":"1"}],"image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","disable_ad":"0","subtitle":"New analysis claims partisan divide shrinks to just 1.64%, challenging conventional assumptions ahead of 2026 election cycle"},"jnews_primary_category":[],"jnews_social_meta":[],"jnews_override_counter":{"view_counter_number":"0","share_counter_number":"0","like_counter_number":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12289","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-government"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - 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