Alarcon says the numbers favor Gaines
PLACERVILLE, Calif. — The race for the El Dorado County Board of Supervisors District 4 seat may have reached its decisive moment, at least in the eyes of Placerville Newswire publisher Cris Alarcon.
Following the third update of election-night results released by the El Dorado County Elections Department, Alarcon called the race for Ted Gaines, citing a substantial vote advantage over challenger Gina Posey and the mathematical difficulty of overcoming the deficit with the remaining ballots.
The results, reported at 11:40:25 p.m. Nov. 3, showed Gaines with 6,873 votes, or 54.65%, compared with Posey’s 5,656 votes, or 44.97%.
That put Gaines ahead by 1,217 votes.
Alarcon’s assessment was straightforward: “The margin is too great to realistically expect” a reversal.
Rather than relying on political speculation, Alarcon based his assessment on an estimated remaining ballot count and the percentage of outstanding votes Posey would need to capture to overtake Gaines.
The turnout assumption behind the projection
To estimate how many votes might remain, Alarcon examined historical voter participation in El Dorado County and used a projected turnout of 60% for the November 2026 general election.
Historical participation figures illustrate why turnout assumptions matter.
According to California Secretary of State election statistics, El Dorado County recorded 61.92% turnout among eligible voters in the November 2022 general election. The county recorded 31.62% turnout among eligible voters in the June 2014 primary election. These figures demonstrate the substantial differences between primary and general election participation.
Using 60% as his working assumption, Alarcon estimated that approximately 3,498 ballots could remain to be counted in the District 4 contest.
That figure is a projection, not an official outstanding-ballot count published by the Elections Department.
Nevertheless, it provides the basis for his mathematical analysis.
The mathematics: What Posey would need to win
The challenge facing Posey becomes clearer when the remaining votes are applied to the existing margin.
At the third election-night update:
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Ted Gaines | 6,873 | 54.65% |
| Gina Posey | 5,656 | 44.97% |
| Gaines’ lead | 1,217 |
With an estimated 3,498 votes remaining, Posey would need considerably more than half of those ballots.
In fact, she would need at least 2,358 of the remaining 3,498 votes to finish ahead.
That translates to approximately 67.41% of all outstanding ballots.
Here is the calculation:
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Current deficit: Gaines leads by 1,217 votes.
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Estimated remaining ballots: 3,498.
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Votes needed to tie: Posey must first overcome the 1,217-vote deficit.
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Additional votes needed to win: She must then receive at least one more vote than Gaines from the remaining ballots.
The mathematical formula is:
Because a candidate must finish with at least one more vote than the opponent, Posey needs 1,141 votes beyond the number required to erase the deficit.
Therefore:
The projected final tally illustrates just how narrow the margin for error would be.
| Candidate | Current votes | Remaining votes needed | Projected total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gina Posey | 5,656 | 2,358 | 8,014 |
| Ted Gaines | 6,873 | 1,140 | 8,013 |
Even under this scenario, Posey would win by just one vote.
In percentage terms, she would need approximately 67.41% of the outstanding ballots, leaving Gaines with approximately 32.59%.
That is a substantial shift from the reported election-night results, where Gaines held 54.65% of the vote.
Why Alarcon is calling the race
Alarcon’s conclusion rests on the difference between a mathematically possible outcome and one that appears realistically achievable.
Posey has not been mathematically eliminated. As long as ballots remain uncounted, the outcome cannot be considered final.
However, the projected vote requirement presents a formidable obstacle.
A candidate trailing by 1,217 votes would need to win more than two-thirds of the estimated remaining ballots to reverse the outcome. That would require a dramatic departure from the voting pattern reflected in the third election-night update.
For Alarcon, the numbers provide sufficient reason to call the race for Gaines, even while acknowledging that the official counting process remains unfinished.
The official count is not over
There is an important distinction between a news organization’s election-night projection and the official certification of election results.
The El Dorado County Elections Department identifies its election-night results as unofficial. According to the department’s published reporting schedule, results will continue to be updated twice weekly following election night until all ballots, apart from ballots awaiting signature cures, have been tabulated.
The county lists Dec. 3, 2026, as the deadline for completing the official canvass and certifying election results.
Until that process is completed, the results remain subject to change.
Residents can follow the continuing count through the county’s official November 3, 2026, Election Results page.
A race Alarcon believes has been decided
For El Dorado County voters, the District 4 contest represents an important decision about who will occupy a seat on the Board of Supervisors.
Based on the third election-night update, Ted Gaines holds a commanding advantage over Gina Posey.
Alarcon’s call reflects his interpretation of the available numbers and the substantial percentage of remaining votes Posey would need to overcome the deficit.
The ballots still must be counted, and the Elections Department must complete its canvass.
But if the remaining votes follow anything resembling the pattern already reported, the mathematical advantage remains firmly with Gaines.
For now, Cris Alarcon of Placerville Newswire is calling the District 4 race for Ted Gaines.
