PLACERVILLE, Calif. — El Dorado County is unlikely to become a predominantly Democratic county even if California’s mid-decade congressional redistricting plan advances, current voter data and recent election results show. But the proposed map would likely make the congressional district covering much of the county more favorable to Democrats by pulling in parts of Sacramento County and dropping the far-right-leaning Eastern Sierra.
What’s happening
Gov. Gavin Newsom and legislative leaders are pushing the “Election Rigging Response Act,” a package that would place a new congressional map on a statewide special election ballot now targeted for Nov. 4, 2025. The plan would temporarily replace California’s current, commission-drawn congressional lines through 2030, if voters approve. Republicans have filed to block or delay the effort in court. KCRA
What it means for El Dorado County
-
County partisanship: As of the most recent statewide Report of Registration (Feb. 10, 2025), El Dorado County voters are 42.19% Republican, 29.90% Democratic and 18.47% No Party Preference. In the 2024 general election, Donald Trump carried the county 54.0% to 43.8%. Those numbers point to a Republican-leaning county — not one on the verge of becoming majority Democratic.
-
District competitiveness: The draft map adds Democratic-leaning areas of Sacramento County to CA-03 and removes large stretches of the conservative Eastern Sierra, a shift designed to make the district more competitive — and plausibly Democratic-tilting — even as El Dorado County’s own makeup remains right-of-center.
-
Only Congress, not local lines: The proposal affects congressional districts only. It does not change county borders, city councils, school boards or state legislative districts.
The politics
Newsom has framed the push as a direct response to Republican map-drawing in Texas. “Donald Trump, you have poked the bear and we will punch back,” he said at an Aug. 14 rally announcing the plan. Rep. Kevin Kiley, the Rocklin Republican who currently represents CA-03, blasted the effort: “This fails the test of kindergarten logic… Two wrongs does not make a right.” KQEDTahoe Daily Tribune
Independent analysts say the proposed map targets five GOP-held House seats statewide, including Kiley’s. Around Sacramento, CA-03 would shift toward the city and suburbs, while the Sierra segments — which helped power GOP wins — would be pared back.
Bottom line for local voters
Even if voters approve the new map this fall, El Dorado County itself won’t “turn blue” overnight. Registration and recent results indicate the county remains Republican-leaning. What would change is the partisan balance of the congressional district that includes much of the county, potentially making its U.S. House race far more competitive in 2026.
Sources & documents
-
Voter registration: California Secretary of State, Report of Registration (Feb. 10, 2025); county table shows El Dorado at 42.19% Republican, 29.90% Democratic, 18.47% NPP. California Secretary of State
-
2024 results: El Dorado County Statement of Vote, President: Trump 54.0%, Harris 43.8%. El Dorado County
-
Proposed map & timeline: KCRA explainer and map details; CalMatters overview of district changes. KCRACalMatters
-
Official proposal: Office of Gov. Gavin Newsom news release outlining temporary adoption of congressional districts through 2030.
-
Local impact reporting: Tahoe Daily Tribune on CA-03 and Lake Tahoe. Tahoe Daily Tribune
